Oscar Predictions: Film Editing — Why This Category Remains Best Picture’s Strongest Tell

According To The variety Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday. Oscars Best Film Editing Commentary (Updated Jan. 5, 2026): Since film editing became an Oscar category in 1934, its connection to the best picture race has been unmistakable. From 1981 through 2013, every best picture winner was also nominated for film editing, a remarkable 33-year streak that helped cement the category as one of the Academy’s most reliable predictors. Roughly two-thirds of best picture winners have gone on to win the editing Oscar. That pattern has cracked only twice in the expanded best picture era. “Birdman” (2014) and “CODA” (2021) both won best picture without editing nominations. This year’s editing race showcases radically different philosophies of cinematic rhythm. “Hamnet” and “Marty Supreme” represent one of the season’s most intriguing case studies, particularly because of the filmmakers’ hands-on approach. Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao co-editing their own films places them in exceedingly rare company. Only three directors have ever won the Oscar for film editing — James Cameron for “Titanic,” Alfonso Cuarón for “Gravity” and Sean Baker for “Anora.” Others, including David Lean, the Coen brothers (working under the alias Roderick Jaynes) and Zhao herself, have previously earned editing nominations for films they directed. Another crucial factor shaping the race is the long-standing bond between film editing and sound. Since 2013, no two Oscar categories have demonstrated a stronger statistical relationship, regardless of whether sound was split into editing and mixing or combined into a single award. During the split-sound era, films such as “Gravity,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “Dunkirk” and “Bohemian Rhapsody” swept both editing and sound. Even when the overlap was partial, the connection held. “Hacksaw Ridge” won editing and sound mixing in 2016, while “Ford v Ferrari” took editing and sound editing in 2019. That relationship has loosened in recent years. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) won editing without a sound nom. “Oppenheimer” (2023) claimed editing but lost sound to “The Zone of Interest.” Last year, “Anora” won editing without a sound nod, while “Dune: Part Two” took home the statue. Against that backdrop, “F1” vrooms into the conversation as a potential disruptor. Fresh off a Critics Choice Award win for editing and powered by its commercial success and broad appeal, the high-octane racing drama has been registering beyond the craft branches. If its momentum carries through the guild phase, “F1” could position itself as a film testing the edges of a best picture nom as well. NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed and credited artisans are subject to change, and are ultimately determined by the Academy.